Friday, May 6, 2011

2011 MLB Mock Draft 3.0


**Update: Final Mock Draft from 6.5.11 posted here.**


It's been over two months since my last mock draft, and I'm thrilled to say that the wait is over folks! With each edition we're becoming slightly less and less inaccurate but this list is still ripe with speculation and postulation.


The most significant contrast you'll notice from other editions is that TCU LHP Matt Purke has gone from a projected #2 overall selection when this list was first published in January, to off the board completely. Purke missed time early in the season with blister issues and hasn't resembled the pitcher that went 16-0 as a freshman last season. He's currently shut down with shoulder soreness and that injury combined with his increased leverage of being a sophomore currently make him too risky to be classified as a first round pick. Note that a return to the mound could vault him back into the middle of the first round very quickly.



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1. Pittsburgh Pirates - Anthony Rendon - 3B - Rice. Bats: R Throws: R. 6'0" 190. Last Drafted: Atlanta Braves - '08 (27th Round).


Update: The most feared amateur hitter in the nation has just 4 HR on the year but without much protection in the Owls lineup he's already walked 62 times, an astounding 30% of his plate appearances. A sore shoulder has limited him mostly to DH, but it's more likely that his decreasing power numbers are a result of the new college bats and a lack of pitches to hit.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Anthony Rendon, 2.22 Anthony Rendon


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2. Seattle Mariners - Gerrit Cole - RHP - UCLA. 6'4" 220. Last Drafted: New York Yankees - '08 (1st Round).


Update: Cole has shown improved control (not command) in 2011 and if UCLA could score more runs his Bruins would still be a top 5 team in the nation as they were in the preseason. Despite his teams inconsistent play, the Boras Corp advisee could slide past Rendon into the top spot.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Matt Purke, 2.22 Gerrit Cole


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3. Arizona Diamondbacks - Sonny Gray - RHP - Vanderbilt. 5'11" 180. Last Drafted: Chicago Cubs - '08 (27th Round).


Update: My hunch is that the undersized RHP will end up in the pen, but with his mid 90's fastball and one of the better curveballs in the draft, Gray will be given every opportunity to start.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Gerrit Cole, 2.22 Matt Purke


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4. Baltimore Orioles - Dylan Bundy - RHP - Owasso HS (OK). 6'1" 200. College Commitment: Texas.


Update: Dylan's brother Bobby was an 8th round pick by these Baltimore Orioles in 2008 so it's conceivable that they make the younger Bundy the first prep pitcher off the board.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Bubba Starling, 2.22 Taylor Jungmann


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5. Kansas City Royals - Bubba Starling - OF - Gardner Edgerton HS (KS). Bats: R Throws: R. 6'4" 180. College Commitment: Nebraska (Football)


Update: Missed some time with a quad injury but was triumphant in his return. On talent alone he's a top 5 pick but bonus demand could cause him to drop to anywhere in the first round. Scouting report here by Mike Diaz.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Taylor Jungmann, 2.22 George Springer


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6. Washington Nationals - Danny Hultzen - LHP - Virginia. 6'2" 195. Last Drafted: Arizona Diamondbacks - '08 (10th Round)


Update: Hultzen might not have the pure "stuff" of Cole, Gray or Jed Bradley but he trumps them all in the polish category. He's currently 9-1 1.19 ERA and in 75.2 innings he has 112 Ks to just 12 BBs

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Daniel Norris, 2.22 Sonny Gray


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7. Arizona Diamondbacks (for failure to sign Barret Loux) - Francisco Lindor - SS - Montverde Academy (FL). Bats: B Throws: R. 5'11" 175. College Commitment: Florida State.


Update: While this draft is insanely deep, if it has a weakness it's top tier prep position players. Lindor is impressive and the closest thing to Manny Machado in this draft.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Jackie Bradley Jr., 2.22 Jackie Bradley Jr.


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8. Cleveland Indians - Taylor Jungmann - RHP - Texas. 6'6 195. Last Drafted: Los Angeles Angles - '08 (24th Round)


Update: A workhorse who routinely gives his Longhorn bullpen the night off, Jungmann is now 10-0 with an 0.90 ERA with three complete game shutouts. The Indians have spent 1st round picks on North Carolina's Alex White, and Mississippi's Drew Pomeranz both of whom, like Jungmann, were among the best college arms in their respective classes.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 George Springer, 2.22 Archie Bradley


9. Chicago Cubs - Taylor Guerrieri - RHP - Spring Valley HS (SC). 6'3" 180. College Commitment: South Carolina.


Update: Guerrieri has rocketed up draft boards after hitting 98 mph this spring.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Sonny Gray, 2.22 Bubba Starling


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10. San Diego Padres (for failure to sign Karsten Whitson) - Trevor Bauer - RHP - UCLA. 6'1" 175. Last Drafted: Never.


Update: Trevor Bauer has outpitched higher profile teammate Gerrit Cole and is 8-1 1.42 with 142 Ks in 91.2 IP. All this after leading the NCAA in strikeouts 2010 (165 in 131.1 IP).


Previous Mocks: 1.17 Archie Bradley, 2.22 Matt Barnes


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11. Houston Astros - Archie Bradley - RHP - Broken Arrow HS (OK). 6'4" 210. College Commitment: Oklahoma.


Update: Like Starling, Archie Bradley is a star in both the gridiron and the diamond providing him leverage not afforded to his peers, but MLB teams will have the luxury of spreading his bonus over multiple years to buy him away from his college commitment.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Dillon Howard, 2.22 Daniel Norris


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12. Milwaukee Brewers - Jed Bradley - LHP - Georgia Tech. 6'3" 205. Last Drafted: Never.


Update: Now that I've had the chance to see Bradley throw on film a few times, I'm even more impressed with his stuff. Though he lacks polish and command, so does Gerrit Cole, the top pitcher in this class.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Matt Barnes, 2.22 Dylan Bundy


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13. New York Mets - George Springer - OF - Connecticut. Bats: R Throws: R. 6'3" 205. Last Drafted: Minnesota Twins '08 (48th Round)


Update: The athletic outfielder is leading the Huskies in AVE (.371), HR (9), RBI (62) and SB (22) among other things.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 John Stilson, 2.22 Francisco Lindor


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14. Florida Marlins - Daniel Norris - LHP - Science Hill HS (TN). 6'3" 180. College Commitment: Clemson.


Update: Appears to be falling on the list of prep pitchers but it's more the result of risers like Bundy and Guerrieri. Norris is a classically trained pianist and one of the more grounded kids in this draft.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Dylan Bundy, 2.22 Jed Bradley


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15. Milwaukee Brewers (for failure to sign Dylan Covey) - Matt Barnes - RHP - Connecticut. 6'3" 180. Last Drafted: Never.


Update: UConn was a preseason top 10 team before stumbling out of the gate but Barnes and company have been hot lately

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Trevor Bauer, 2.22 Trevor Bauer


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16. Los Angeles Dodgers - Anthony Meo - RHP - Coastal Carolina. 6'2" 190. Last Drafted: Washington Nationals - '08 (43rd Round)


Update: I'm trying not to add too much weight to signability this far out from draft day, but the financial state of the Dodgers means they most likely won't select a high schooler.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Danny Hultzen, 2.22 Danny Hultzen


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17. Los Angeles Angels - Blake Swihart - C - Cleveland HS (NM). Bats: B Throws: R. 6'0" 175. College Commitment: Texas.


Update: One of the best prep bats in this class, Swihart is a switch hitter who has a better than average chance to remain behind the dish. There's a lot to like about that last sentence.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Blake Swihart, 2.22 Blake Swihart


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18. Oakland Athletics - Mikie Mahtook - OF - LSU. 6'1" 205. Bats: R Throws: R. Last Drafted: Florida Marlins '08 (39th Round).


Update: Mikie Mahtook has been on the national scene since his freshman year when he stared on a National Championship team and this year he's taken the next step to superstardom.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Josh Bell, 2.22 Anthony Meo


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19. Boston Red Sox (from Tigers for Victor Martinez) - Alex Meyer - RHP - Kentucky. 6'9" 210. Last Drafted: Boston Red Sox. '08 (20th Round).


Update: Scouting Report Here. The Red Sox aggressively tried to sign him away from his Kentucky commitment so it's conceivable Meyer comes off the board here.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Francisco Lindor, 2.22 Jason Esposito


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20. Colorado Rockies - Dillon Howard - RHP - Searcy HS (AR). 6'2" 200. College Commitment: Arkansas.


Update: Howard has three potential plus pitches with his change-up being his best offering.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Tyler Anderson, 2.22 Dillon Howard


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21. Toronto Blue Jays - Tyler Anderson - LHP - Oregon. 6'3" 195. Last Drafted: Never.


Update: Though the Ducks season has been a bit of a disappointment, Anderson has thrived going 6-1 with a 1.51 ERA and 92 K's in 83.1 IP.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Jason Esposito, 2.22 Tyler Anderson


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22. St. Louis Cardinals - Jackie Bradley Jr. - OF - South Carolina. Bats: L Throws: R. 5'10" 175. Last Drafted: Never


Update: Bradley Jr. entered the season on the heals of a Most Outstanding Player award in the College World Series as a potential top 5 pick. He's had some trouble adjusting to the new bats and will now miss significant time (if not the season) with a torn ligament in his wrist.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Derek Fisher, 2.22 John Stilson


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23. Washington Nationals (from White Sox for Adam Dunn) - Josh Bell - OF - Jesuit Prep School of Dallas (TX). Bats: B Throws: R. 6'3" 205. College Commitment: Texas.


Update: Like Swilhart, Bell is a switch hitter and one of the top prep bats in this class.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Alex Meyer, 2.22 Josh Bell


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24. Tampa Bay Rays (from Red Sox for Carl Crawford) - Henry Owens - LHP - Edison HS Huntington Beach (CA). 6'5" 185. College Commitment: Miami (FL).


Update: Owens may pass Norris as the top prep lefty in this draft.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Brandon Nimmo, 2.22 Henry Owens


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25. San Diego Padres - Andrew Susac - C - Oregon State. 6'1" 205. Bats: R Throws: R. Last Drafted: Philadelphia Phillies - '09 (16th Round).


Update: Susac is currently out with a broken hamate bone, but he'll return in time for the Beavers run at a return to Omaha.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Anthony Meo, 2.22 Kolten Wong


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26. Boston Red Sox (from Rangers for Adrian Beltre) - Jose Fernandez - RHP - Alonso HS (FL). 6'3" 215. College Commitment: South Florida.


Update: The Cuban born Fernandez has a plus fastball that sits in the mid to low 90s.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Jose Fernandez, 2.22 Jose Fernandez


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27. Cincinnati Reds - Levi Michael - SS - North Carolina. 5'10" 180. Bats: B Throws: R. Last Drafted: Never.


Update: Michael graduated from HS a semester early and started as a freshman in what would have been his senior year of high school. He's spent seasons at 2B and 3B before settling at SS this year where he's holding his own.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 - Alex Dickerson, 2.22 Alex Dickerson


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28. Atlanta Braves - Brian Goodwin - OF - Miami Dade JC. 6'1" 190. Bats: L Thorws: R. Last Drafted - Chicago White Sox - '09 (17th Round).


Update: A bluechip recruit at North Carolina, Goodwin left after his freshman year rather than ride out a suspension resulting in his being draft eligible a year earlier.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Zach Cone, 2.22 Zach Cone


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29. San Francisco Giants - Jason Esposito - SS/3B - Vanderbilt. Throws: R Bats: R. 6'1" 195. Last Drafted: Kansas City Royals - '08 (7th Round).


Update: Esposito is a slick fielding 3B with decent pop on one of the Nation's best NCAA teams.

Previous Mocks: 1.17 Jed Bradley, 2.22 Brian Goodwin


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30. Minnesota Twins - Nicky Delmonico - C/3B - Farragut HS (TN). 6'2" 185. Bats: L Throws: R. College Commitment: Georgia.


Update: Farragut is a powerhouse in Tennessee baseball with a number of MLB draft picks and Delmonico could go down as the greatest in school history. The Twins actually selected Farragut pitcher Kyle Waldrop in the 1st round of the 2004 draft.


Previous Mocks: 1.17 Noe Ramirez, 2.22 Brandon Nimmo


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31. Tampa Bay Rays - (From Yankees for Raphael Soriano) - Brandon Nimmo - OF - Cheyenne (WY). 6'3" 185. Bats: L Throws: R. College Commitment: Arkansas.


Update: Nimmo looks to become the best MLB draftee since John Buck.


Previous Mocks: 1.17 Logan Verrett, 2.22 Andrew Susac


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32. Tampa Bay Rays - John Stilson - RHP - Texas A&M. 6'4" 190. Last Drafted: Minnesota Twins - '09 (19th Round).


Update: One of the Nation's best closers as a sophomore, Stilson has transitioned into the Friday starter role and owns a 4-1 record with a 1.71 ERA and 87 K's in 79 IP.


Previous Mocks: 1.17 Charlie Tilson, 2.22 Alex Meyer


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33. Texas Rangers (From Phillies for Cliff Lee) - Charlie Tilson - OF - New Trier HS (IL). 6'0" 165. Throws: R Bats: R. College Commitment: Illinois.


Update: An extended winter has limited the opportunities of MLB teams to get looks at Tilson, but he's one of the more athletic outfielders in this draft. Period.


Previous Mocks: 1.17 Mikie Mahtook, 2.22 Mikie Mahtook


Dropped Out:



Matt Purke - LHP - TCU. 6'4" 180. Last Drafted: Texas Rangers - '09 (1st Round).


Kolten Wong - 2B - Hawaii. Bats: L Throws: R. 5'8" 175. Last Drafted: Minnesota Twins - '08 (16th Round).


Alex Dickerson - OF - Indiana. 6'3" 220. Throws: L Bats: L. Last Drafted - Washington Nationals '08 (48th Round).


Zach Cone - OF - Georgia. 6'2" 200. Throws: R Bats: R. Last Drafted - Los Angeles Angles '08 (3rd Round).



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6 comments:

  1. NO Matt Purke???? Hard to believe he has fallen that far.

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  2. There's still plenty of time for Purke to return and demonstrate that he's healthy. If he is, he's an easy first rounder. I view this as a pretty similar situation to Tanner Scheppers in 2008. Scheppers was a consensus top 10 pick for much of the year until being shut down with a shoulder injury that was mysterious at the time and slid to the 2nd round.

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  3. I'm surprised you have Jackie Bradley going in the late first round. I would think this year's performance and injury has dropped him out in the first 33. Since the Cardinals have no supplemental picks this choice would surprise me.

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  4. Valid point and thanks for the comment. No premium prospect seems to have been impacted by the new bats more than JBJ. The performance issues alone would have dropped him out of the top 10, but I'm not concerned about the injury. I still think the tools warrant first round consideration.

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  5. when is going to be your next-last mock? T.Y.

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  6. What about this kid Vaughn Bryan out of Coral Springs Charter in Florida? He's a stud in the making. He should be up here.

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